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No One's World: The West, the Rising Rest, and the Coming Global Turn, by Charles A. Kupchan
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The world is on the cusp of a global turn. Between 1500 and 1800, the West sprinted ahead of other centers of power in Asia and the Middle East. Europe and the United States have dominated the world since. But today the West's preeminence is slipping away as China, India, Brazil and other emerging powers rise. Although most strategists recognize that the dominance of the West is on the wane, they are confident that its founding ideas--democracy, capitalism, and secular nationalism--will continue to spread, ensuring that the Western order will outlast its primacy.
In No One's World, Charles A. Kupchan boldly challenges this view, arguing that the world is headed for political and ideological diversity; emerging powers will neither defer to the West's lead nor converge toward the Western way. The ascent of the West was the product of social and economic conditions unique to Europe and the United States. As other regions now rise, they are following their own paths to modernity and embracing their own conceptions of domestic and international order.
Kupchan contends that the Western order will not be displaced by a new great power or dominant political model. The twenty-first century will not belong to America, China, Asia, or anyone else. It will be no one's world. For the first time in history, an interdependent world will be without a center of gravity or global guardian.
More than simply diagnosing what lies ahead, Kupchan provides a detailed strategy for striking a bargain between the West and the rising rest by fashioning a new consensus on issues of legitimacy, sovereignty, and governance. Thoughtful, provocative, sweeping in scope, this work is nothing less than a global guidebook for the 21st century.
- Sales Rank: #690573 in eBooks
- Published on: 2012-03-01
- Released on: 2012-03-01
- Format: Kindle eBook
Review
"No One's World makes a bold claim that we are seeing not just a shift to a more multipolar world, but the emergence of "multiple modernities" in which Western values are no longer dominant. This is a debatable point, but one that is cogently argued by one of the keenest observers of international politics." --Francis Fukuyama, author of The Origins of Political Order and The End of History and the Last Man
"Charles Kupchan provides a refreshingly sober, clear-eyed, and controversial take on what the emerging world might really look like. You don't have to agree with all his prescriptions, but his well-informed and crisply-written analysis of the historical forces that have shaped today's world and what they mean for tomorrow is a valuable contribution on the most important topic of our time." --Robert Kagan, Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution and author of Dangerous Nation
"One of America's leading international scholars offers an original look at the world's future. He envisions a new global circle consisting of a revived West and emerging powers-a world without a center of gravity that will require more consensus and more tolerance of difference. Provocative and challenging." --Leslie H. Gelb, president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations and former New York Times columnist
"Charles Kupchan is an important and distinctive voice in an ongoing debate about the future shape of the international order. Contrary to those who argue that now is the time for the West to strengthen and extend existing rules, he cautions policymakers to prepare for a world of conflicting values and multiple paths to modernity and prosperity. The prospect of No One's World is not one that Western policymakers and pundits like to contemplate, which is all the more reason that they should read this book." --Anne-Marie Slaughter, Bert G. Kerstetter '66 University Professor of Politics and International Affairs, Princeton University
"Lucid and engaging." --Publishers Weekly
About the Author
Charles A. Kupchan is Professor of International Affairs at Georgetown University and Whitney Shepardson Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. He served on the National Security Council during the Clinton presidency and is the author of How Enemies Become Friends and The End of the American Era. He lives in Washington, DC.
Most helpful customer reviews
26 of 29 people found the following review helpful.
Is America's Global Power really in Decline?
By J. Kimbrough
This election year has seen many authors fixated on the decline of America. With economic hard times and the shifting of the balance of power, America's global political dominance is declining in a world that is moving towards a more "multipolar" world or "No Ones's World", according to Charles Kupchan's book. In his words, his main thesis or Argument is "This book is the first to argue that the next world will be dominated by no country or region".
He continues throughout the rest of the chapters presenting his valid arguments and analysis. He explains the rise of the West and its global dominance at the end of WWII and how the "Western Way" "Bested the Rest". He turns next to the predicted (possible) future loss of power and a potential power vacuum in geopolitics. Further, he writes there is no alternative country or region that will ascend to a world which has been dominated by the United States and it is for the first time in history that the world will have no one global dominate force, but many. He discusses the rise of "new" powers in the world and as he believes the "Western way" is not being universalized (his words) with these new rising powers of China, India, and Brazil. Our ways are too different and were based on sociological & economic conditions unique to the US & Europe and does not fit the value systems of these new "rising" powers. He further says the end result will be a potential conflict on how the future world will be managed and how or what policies will be implemented.
In his final Chapter "Managing No one's World", he explains his view on how this new world will work, if it does at all. As he writes, "A Vision for adopting the international order to the coming global turn" and the US must take the lead in making a new consensus with new principles.
Of the books published I have read on America's decline whether economical, sociological or political, Mr. Kupchan takes a different outlook at the future of America in world politics, but his assumptions and conclusions are valid. America's power came when our economy was expanding, how will it fare in the future when it is in economic decline and the rest are expending? Or will a military arms race with China, who could possibly outspend us, be our downfall as was for the Soviet Union? These are valid questions for the future and starting points for how we can manage this future. For Mr. Kupchan, the next world will have no center of gravity, it will be no one's world.
Mr. Kupchan is currently a professor of international relations at Georgetown University and a former NSC White House member.
In addition Mr. Kupchan has written other fine books. This one I have also read: "The End of the American Era: U.S. Foreign Policy and the Geopolitics of the Twenty-first Century" by Charles Kupchan
Please also read the "The Economist" review for this book.(see comments for the link). They see the author predicting a much "darker" future. It is the reason why I purchased it.
17 of 19 people found the following review helpful.
The Future Knocks on the Door
By H. Peter Nennhaus
This treatise casts a view into the world's future and reveals a surprising number of troubling challenges. Beginning within the next two decades, a tectonic power shift from the West to several other countries is about to transpire with China being the most prominent beneficiary. The operating mechanism is twofold: on one hand there is the recent decline of the economic, financial and political performance of Europe and America and, on the other, the rapid catch-up of the BRICS countries - Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. This stark realization gives rise to a sobering soul searching as to the West's liabilities and failures, their origin, nature, and prognosis. In a clinically stringent survey, Charles Kupchan lists the tasks we must accomplish, if we want the transition to be an orderly, peaceful and beneficial process instead of permitting the family of nations to get disrupted in an anarchic, jealous, and destructive confrontation.
Among his almost 20 conclusions, here are four of them: 1. As the title of the book indicates, our present single superpower system will enter into a multi-power world lacking a solitary leader. 2. Each of the rising geographic regions will pursue its own way of modernization as determined by their cultural traditions. Few if any of them will adhere to liberal democracy and rather follow their accustomed autocracy systems. Thus, China will cling to its communal autocracy, Russia to its paternal autocracy, the Muslem region to its religious and tribal autocracy, and so on. 3. America will have to retrench its global ambitions to a formula commensurate with is diminishing means. 4. Among the globally acceptable fundamental principles that are to rule the future, the West must agree to the redefinition of regime legitimacy. That is to say, we must extend the concept of legitimacy to those regimes that govern responsibly, be they democratic or autocratic.
This is an eye opening exploration. It is mandatory reading for anyone among the world's leaders. In fact, for those who believe that human civilization has arrived at the point where mankind is ready to unite under global law and a global system of security, here indeed is a wealth of facts that support this concept and urges its implementation.
12 of 13 people found the following review helpful.
Good Details and Conclusions
By Loyd Eskildson
Author Kupchan disagrees with those believing democracy, capitalism, and nationalism will ensure that the West will continue to dominate the world. He believes this century will not 'belong' to America, China, Asia, the West, or anyone else.
His book begins by recounting the West's ascent to global preeminence between 1500 and 1800. The initial main driver was a product of its political weakness that allowed socioeconomic ferment in Europe. Merchants, intellectuals, and serfs challenged the monarchy, aristocracy, and the church. The Reformation set the stage for intellectual advances by exposing religion to rational inquiry. The growing costs of the modern state (eg. often involved in wars between one faction/nation and another) also forced monarchs to share power in order for the citizens to accept these new costs. Another benefit of the rising middle class was that it provided the economic and intellectual foundations for the Industrial Revolution, and that in turn helped bring improved education, conscription, etc.
More rigid hierarchical orders in the Ottoman Empire, India, China, and Japan held back their transformation. Self-imposed isolation in China and Japan also held those nations back. During the 18th century the development of ocean-going vessels with heavy guns enabled Europe to dominate. The eventual spread of the West's founding ideas was largely a product of its material dominance, not the universal appeal of those ideas. The fall of the Soviet Union also helped.
WWII brought an end to Europe's run as the globe's center of gravity - they'd been devastated by the war and U.S. forced decolonization. American believed they could use their power to order the world toward democratic capitalism - eg. Germany and Japan.
China's economy will pass America's within the current decade, possibly sooner, while Islam is now strengthening its hold on politics in many areas. Neither share Western values. In 2010, four of the top five economies were part of the West; by 2050 only the U.S. will be part of the group, and about half the size of China's economy. In 1978, 12% of all PhDs awarded in the U.S. went to foreign students; by 2008 this had risen to 33%, with 60% in engineering and 48% in the sciences. China now leads the world in steel production, as does Asia in shipbuilding. Kupchan still sees America's Navy as a formidable force, but he doesn't consider new asymmetric warfare capabilities such as supersonic missiles, cheap high-speed torpedo boats, etc. Support for scientific research has recently lured back some 200,000 scientists trained abroad.
Today's rising powers are each following unique paths toward modernity based on their own political, demographic, and socioeconomic conditions. China and Russia have communitarian and paternalistic cultures that sharply contrast with the West. China's traders, artisans, and professionals no longer need to escape the state to realize their potential - its government works to help them and includes them within the CCP - thus co-opting them into supporting the state. About 40% of college professors and administrators belong to the CCP (and China is doubling that sector), over 1/3 of entrepreneurs have become party members, the CCP appoints about 80% of SOE managers (create 40% of its GDP).
Kupchan sees regulated markets and planned economies as having advantages over Western alternatives in today's fast-evolving world; this was demonstrated by China's far better performance in the Great Recession created in the U.S. China was helped by its high savings rate, central planning, and large surpluses. The West was hobbled by an inadequate regulatory framework, vested interests, polarized/disaffected voters, and the influence of political donations in the U.S.
Deng Xiaoping: "The Western style of checks and balances must never be practiced. Efficiency must be guaranteed.' Mao's rule had brought ideological excesses and a cult of personality. Since then, however, China's government is no longer on an ideological crusade - it is pragmatic and shrewd with a remarkable record of leadership competence.
China, Russia, India, Brazil, and Turkey frequently break with America's leadership. Less than one-fourth of Russians believe their nation needs Western-style government - their experiences during the 1990s led many to equate democracy with corruption, chaos, and economic decline.
About two-thirds of Egypt's population want civil law to strictly adhere to the Koran. The Arab Spring is expanding Islam's influence on government.
India's growth rates have been only about half China's. Kupchan sees that as due to its democratic institutions being even more unwieldy by its ethnic and linguistic diversity. Resource allocation depends less on efficiency than spreading benefits over competing constituencies.
I particularly liked the author's point about the U.S. needing to moderate its 'marketing' of democracy. He says that we should evaluate other nations on whether they have responsible governance, not liberal democracy. ('Responsible governance' was defined as being dedicated to improving the lives of its citizens and enabling them to pursue their aspirations.) Other nations' have differing values and backgrounds - much of Asia, as well as Russia, value a more communitarian and authoritative government. Moving too fast towards democracy can produce civil war, economic disaster (eg. Russia). Foreign policy should be evaluated via whether the nation safeguards the welfare of its citizens and refrains from compromising the security of other states - eg. aggression, exporting WMD, sponsoring terrorism.
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